In this exclusive extract from IHRC’s forthcoming book Is the Sun Setting on the Western Empire? Exploring Shifts in Global Power and Islamophobic Thinking, João Silva Jordão discusses the Northern Megastate that is set to replace the so-called West and encompasses much of the northern landmasses. He explores this concept through the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how it does not disconnect Russia from the West but is rather a calculated manoeuvre for its standing in the western world.
Introduction and Editorial note
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to an astounding amount of renewed hatred towards Russia, a hatred marked by cynicism and hypocrisy, while the vilification of Russians at large has been nothing more than fully-fledged weaponized racism meant to serve specific geopolitical purposes. However there is a hidden historical dimension to this conflict, which is counter-intuitive and yet easily verifiable- Russia is not, historically, inevitably an enemy of the West and much less of the rest of Europe. In fact, Russia has often made alliances with Western European Countries. Furthermore, Putin’s political career can be seen as one long attempt to increase Russia’s standing in the Western world, as opposed to a real attempt to drift away from it or even to destroy it.
Aleksandr Dugin’s[i] vision of a united Eurasia, albeit with Russia as its leader, which is allegedly at the heart of Russia’s political and military contemporary philosophy, is counter to the notion that Russia and the West are mortal enemies- i.e., even Russian ultra-nationalists are smarter than to see Russia as being inevitably at odds with Western Europe. Geographically, the Great European Plane also makes Western Russia a natural extension of Western Europe.
However, a reunification between Russia and the West in the medium term, a scenario that is far from improbable, and is in fact if anything the most likely possibility, could have grave consequences for Muslims. A unified West would only need a coalition of a handful of countries, and even more so if the EU continues its path towards Federalization. An alliance between the USA, Canada, the EU, the UK, and Russia would make for a continuous landmass only separated by the Atlantic and the small gap between Alaska and Siberia. The rise of China and some other powers can also serve as an incentive for this sort of geopolitical shift.
Though Russia is for the moment, in the short-term, allied with China, it is laughable to think that this alliance is anything other than temporary, and highly cynical, on both sides. This potential alliance, hereby referred to as the Northern Megastate Menace, would make for a terrifying new geopolitical reality in which an alliance of Caucasian-majority nations would then undoubtedly then gang up on the countries to its South, potentially unleashing killing and plundering to a level never seen before in the history of mankind. In the medium-term, Muslims must make sure that the Northern Megastate Menace never materializes, while in the long-term, the disposition of Muslims around the world could change to such a degree so as to make it that this Northern Megastate would be so dependent on its own Islamic contingent that it could be neutral or even friendly towards Muslims and Islam. Muslims must pursue both objectives simultaneously: preventing the Mesgastate from coming into being; as well as claiming their own space in the countries of the North, whilst aggressively pursuing a Grand Islamic Alliance of their own to defend their security and interests.
Lastly, insofar as the introduction goes and as an editorial note, one must note that this paper will more often than not adhere to an academic style in both content, style and in the use of bibliographical references, however, since it also serves as a structured exercise in speculation, making this both a work of geopolitical analysis as well as a necessary thought experiment that runs through a likely scenario, hoping that the exercise informs useful pathways forward regardless of whether it comes to be, or not.
The Northern Megastate Danger, an Ultra-Dystopian Possibility
There is a prospect which everyone seems to be ignoring- the possibility of virtually all northern countries uniting in what would be the most daunting political structure in the history of mankind. This Northern Megastate would be an almost continuous landmass that goes from the tip of Western Europe, Portugal, through Europe, onto Russia and Siberia, through to Alaska, including Canada and the United States of America and finishing in the North American East Coast. If Alaska and Siberia are ever connected via a bridge, one could then theoretically drive from Lisbon to New York, and in doing so would nearly be going across the whole globe.
This prospect might seem fanciful. But a quick look at history and the present situation demonstrates that this is a very real possibility. If we consider the European Union as a single State, then this huge swathe of terrain is controlled by only four states- Canada, the United States of America, the European Union and the Russian Federation. Three of these are already locked in a comprehensive military alliance, NATO, and are highly economically interdependent. So geopolitically, this huge landmass only has two poles- NATO and Russia.
If we look at this matter from the historical perspective, we can say that Russia is to a degree the modern representative of the Byzantine Empire. Some call Moscow “The Third Rome”. We must also note that all of this area is mostly inhabited by ‘white’, or Caucasian ethnic group, and that all of the languages spoken in these territories are variations of each other.
Therefore, there are two major events that would be needed for this Northern Megastate to come into being. Firstly, the consolidation of the European Union as a Federal State. The second would be the convergence between Russia and NATO. The first is admittedly more likely than the second, but both are actually highly likely.
One of the main problems with this Megastate is that it would be an overwhelmingly economically and politically powerful entity, as well as an inherently militaristic one, which would have an extensive jurisdiction over land and seas perfect for global domination. Consider for example what the EEZ of a Federal European Union would look like[ii] (unfortunately a map that does not take into account Brexit, i.e., the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union[iii]):
The following is a map of the maximum EEZ that the European Union can have as per their maximum potential expansion plans, that is to say, what the European Union’s EEZ would be if every member that is eligible to join, on account of its geographical location, were to join is also illuminating[iv].
The formation of a Northern Megastate would make the term “Global South” not only more useful, but render what was previously a simplification into a literal reality. Geopolitically, the Northern Megastate would then inevitably wage wars and attempt by any means necessary to subjugate the territories and the people living therein directly to the South.
Though it is highly unlikely that Russia ever actually joins the European Union, it is not improbable that it might enter an alliance with the European Union, an alliance that would be the final key to the emergence of the Northern Megastate. The majority of pushback against the idea that this might be possible might come from the commonly held idea that Russia has always and will always be the West’s enemy or at least rival. This concept itself is not only erroneous – since there have been some instances of such alliances – but it carries some parallels to Orwellian critiques of geopolitical propaganda, and echoes 1984’s concepts of state propaganda, whereby changing alliances between large blocks are followed by a rewriting of history that erase past alliances with a block that has now become an enemy.
Furthermore, the tacit alliance between Russia and China that has formed and strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems temporary and cynical. China’s rise will in turn force the West’s hand in looking for new, dedicated allies, and by far the country that is has the characteristics that most equip it to be a formidable force in placating China is precisely Russia, not only because of its geographical location but also because of its military might, nuclear arsenal and all-round experienced army.
Some Instances of Western-Russian Alliances
Western-Russian Alliances are plenty. The infamous Ribbentrop pact is one such example of a tacit alliance between Russia and a Western European power- it was a non-aggression pact agreed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.
Paradoxically, the successive Western invasions of Russia are a key aspect as to why Russia expanded so far East, namely so that its leadership can fall back beyond the Urals if and when an overwhelming Western invasion takes or nearly takes the Great Western Plain.
Among other notorious instances of Russian-Western Alliances are the Franco-Russian alliance that lasted from 1891 to 1917, which also included the United Kingdom from 1904 onwards via the Triple Entente. There are of course more examples of Western-Russian alliances in recent history.
The War in Ukraine can be Interpreted as an “Orwellian War”
George Orwell’s book 1984 (Orwell, 1948), whose real name was Eric Blair, remains one of the most brilliant works in the field of geopolitics. Orwell manages, in a short novel, to be more illuminating than the vast majority of political science authors can across gigantic volumes. One must not underestimate Orwell’s authority in the area of politics; he was, after all, a person who saw, lived through and actively participated in many of the defining events of his time. He participated in the Spanish civil war side by side with socialist militias, was well known and frequented the left-wing intelligentsia of his time, and worked for the British colonial police in India, eventually working for the British secret services. He even reported British activists and characters he believed to be undercover Communist agents to the British intelligence agency, MI5. It is not surprising, therefore, that 1984 is a book about politics in the broad and profound sense of the term, dealing not only with geopolitics, but also with propaganda, internal administration, State organization, espionage, treason, infiltration and psychology.
The book 1984, a critique of state totalitarianism in general, and Stalinism in particular, is best known for its haunting vision of the totalitarian state that constantly surveils its citizens, keeping them in a state of subservience, impotence and perpetual demoralization. Orwell’s vision of a State that constantly surveils its citizens is of course one of a totalitarian state, or any partially totalitarian tendency, which has in turn led to the coinage and widespread use of the term ‘Orwellian state’. The present modern surveillance mechanism, characterized by some as ‘instantaneous totalitarianism’, can be seen as being Orwellian in nature. However, there are many other elements of interest in Orwell’s novel, namely, the vision of how States use war to control their population, wars that we can call Orwellian Wars. The recent conflict in Ukraine demonstrates once again Orwell’s acumen in geopolitical analysis and the relevance of his work in aiding us to understand political phenomena.
Here are selected passages from Chapter II, Part 9 of the novel 1984 that explain the nature of the Orwellian War:
“To understand the nature of the present war – for, despite the regrouping that takes place every few years, it is always the same war – one must realize, in the first place, that it is impossible for this war to be decisive…
“In so far as the war has a direct economic purpose, it is a war of manpower…
“It is for possession of these densely populated regions, and the northern ice sheet, that the three powers are constantly fighting. In practice, no single power controls the entire disputed area. Portions of it are constantly changing hands, and this is the opportunity to seize this or that piece of land through a sudden stroke of betrayal that dictates the endless shifts of alliances…
“The inhabitants of these areas, reduced more or less openly to the condition of slaves, pass continually from conqueror to conqueror and are spent like so much coal or oil in the race to produce more armaments, to capture more territory, to control more force of work, to the production of more armaments, to the capture of more territory, and so on and on. Note that the struggle never goes beyond the borders of the disputed areas…
“War, therefore, if judged by the standards of former wars, is merely an imposture. It is like the battles between certain ruminants, whose horns are incapable of inflicting mutual injury… Surplus consumer goods are consumed, which helps to preserve the particular mental atmosphere that hierarchical society needs. War, as you can see, is now a purely internal affair. In the past, to everyone’s groups the countries in power, although they were able to recognize their common interest and therefore limit the destructive power of war, fought against each other, and the winner always ended up plundering the vanquished… War is waged by each group in power against its own subjects, and the object of war is not to make or prevent conquests of territory, but to keep the structure of society intact. The very word ‘guerra’ therefore became misleading. It would probably be correct to say that, becoming continuous, war ceased to exist…
“A peace that was truly permanent would be the same as a permanent war. This – although the vast majority of Party members understand it in its most superficial sense – is the inner meaning of the Party slogan: War is Peace…”
That is, in Orwell’s world, by staging supposed wars between themselves, the two or more political blocs in fact manage to reach a high degree of internal stability, managing to perpetuate the hierarchical structure of society, continuing to subdue the inhabitants of their respective territories without ever calling into question the existence of other political blocs. That is, by staging a continuous war between them, the political blocs ensure effective peace for their respective political and economic elites, who can continue to rest assured in their position of supremacy over other social classes.
Thanks to the Ukraine crisis, NATO announced the generation of a new ‘rapid response’ military force. Ukraine’s conflict is also providing an opportunity for military industry players to call for more funding to be made available to the army. Some even point to the Ukraine crisis as having the positive side of forcing NATO to start increasing its military spending, thus following the increase in investment that Russia itself has been dedicating to its armed forces. This ‘conflict’ also serves as a pretext for Russia to continue its growing militarization as well as an opportunity to train models of annexation of the surrounding territories in which it may have an interest.
More and more elements suggest that the European Union and the United States of America were behind several events that helped to escalate tensions, namely, the murders of protesters by snipers. Many also speak of the hypocrisy of the alliance between the NATO Bloc and Ukrainian fascist groups, such as the Nazi Svoboda battalion and later the Azov battalion, which NATO uses as proximity agents on the ground to do its dirty work.
What has been less discussed, however, is the extent to which the Ukraine crisis is useful for both sides of the barricade, that is, it is a conflict that benefits both blocs, NATO and the Russian Federation. This conflict allows the two to use contested lands to train their military forces without putting their territorial integrity at risk. It also allows both sides to legitimize greater expenditures by the military industry before their population, which then serves both for foreign aggression and for internal repression.
Above all, we have to look at the elements that reveal this “conflict” as what it truly is: a huge farce. In fact, what we are witnessing is not a conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation, but rather a demonstration of controlled force, a kind of training in which the two blocs show some of their strength without ever questioning the existence of the other. Let’s look at some interesting facts that reveal the ongoing collaboration between the NATO bloc and the Russian Federation, unmasking the farce that is the supposed conflict between the two:
- the three largest military powers in the European Union, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, continue to sell weapons to Russia, while their leaders call for an embargo on future sales;
- Russian and NATO secret services continue to collaborate on a large scale and share information about common enemies, namely Chechen armed groups, as witnessed after the bombing of Boston;
- Germany’s dependence on Russian gas continues, and business between the two countries has continued extensively;
- a huge mutual contract was signed between Gazprom, a Russian State company, and BASF, a German company, after the start of the Ukrainian Civil War (beginning in 2014);
- a Russian investment group invested USD 7 billion in RWE, the German gas company after the start of the Ukraine Civil War (beginning in 2014).
On the one hand, the conflict provides a pretext for the EU and the US to unite militarily through NATO and economically through Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), inflating an industry of “defense and security” (i.e. of foreign aggression and domestic control). On the Russian side, the Civil War and then invasion, fuel the nationalist fire and the revival of Russian Imperialism. Just like the Orwellian conflicts in the novel 1984 between blocs that pretend to hate each other while in fact colluding behind the scenes, the two sides, Russia and NATO, pretend to be approaching open conflict, when in fact the continuation of economic and military promiscuity between the two is quite obvious and open for all to see, while both sides then continue to use the alleged war to consolidate their own geopolitical and economic interests.
The conflict in Ukraine, which the mainstream media wants us to believe at all costs as being a real conflict between NATO and Russia, is in fact a conflict between the State-Corporate network of which NATO and Russia are a part, and the populations of the world. Until now, the population that has suffered the most from this pseudo-NATO-Russia conflict is the population of Ukraine.
Other Relatively Recent Orwellian Wars
Korea, Vietnam, and perhaps also Syria can be considered other Orwellian wars in which two great geopolitical superpowers used a foreign nation’s territory to fight their geopolitical battles, but also to fund and train their military, including the testing of new weaponry and belligerent technologies.
The very use of the term “Cold War” points at this perverse Orwellian tacit agreement between superpowers to only fight within the hinterlands, but never to attack each other’s territory, as the Cold War was not cold at all for Korea and Vietnam, countries which still suffer from the consequences of the Orwellian wars they suffered to this day, especially the former, but also very much the latter. The whole concept of Cold War illustrates a war that never really was, a standoff that could have escalated into war but never did, yet there were wars, and the mayhem, destruction, killing and suffering that inevitably comes from them. Do we not then care about those countries?
Orwellian Wars by no Means Prevent Future Alliances and Agreements- the China-USA Case Study
Perhaps the best example of a superpower that is constantly portrayed aa a rabid, relentless enemy of the West is China. However even so much as a superficial amount of research will demonstrate not only that China is, at best, a geopolitical rival, and most importantly, that despite the obvious rivalry, that there are a massive amount of military deals, agreements, hot lines, and joint undertakings. And that is just the military component. Economically, saying that China is a relentless enemy of the United States is simply preposterous, rather it is the case that they have reached a state of mutual economic dependency, the reversion of which would take decades at a minimum, making an all-out war between the two highly unlikely anytime soon. Let us first look at the ranking of the United States’ biggest trading partners (Forbes, 2020), and as we will see, not only is China in the top three, it is far off of the fourth, which is Japan, and is the only one in the top three that does not share a border with the United States of America:
- Mexico: $614.5 billion
- Canada: $612.4 billion
- China: $558.9 billion
- Japan: $218.3 billion
- Germany: $187.8 billion
There has been no real change in this reality since 2020, as the United State Census Bureau’s data (2022) shows[v]:
Now let us look at some instances of joint military programmes and other instances of cooperation and quasi-alliances. The list is really quite impressive, and let us first note that there are many, many security cooperation deals between China and the United States (Wikipedia, 2022, d), which span over areas such as the army, the navy, coast guard, nuclear security among other areas of activity. One specific example is the setting up of a military “hot line” between high-ranking military officials in the US and China.
In 2017, a military “hot line” was set up between high-ranking military officials in the US and China (USNI News, 2017). Let us also take into consideration that this deal was signed in 2017, under Donald Trump’s presidency. Wasn’t one of his main campaign promises to do his best to contain China’s growth and influence? But the agreement is in fact a surprisingly comprehensive agreement between China and the USA, using the possibility for accidental hostile naval encounters as an excuse.
We can also find the following extensive agreement dating back to 2017 (US Treasury, 2017) its depth and span is extensive, and here is an excerpt:
- Enhancing Global Cooperation and Economic Governance
The United States supports China’s presidency to host a successful G20 Hangzhou Summit in 2016 and looks forward to working closely with China to promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth of the global economy. In supporting the G20 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation, both sides are committed to work with other G20 members to (i) strengthen macroeconomic policy cooperation; (ii) use all policy tools to foster confidence and strengthen growth, use fiscal policy flexibly to strengthen growth, use monetary policy to continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, and use structural reform to boost potential growth in the medium term; (iii) explore opportunities arising from innovation; (iv) improve global economic, financial and energy governance; (v) address climate change and bolster clean energy; (vi) contribute to inclusive and sustainable global development through the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, both domestically and internationally, and the timely implementation of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda. Both sides are committed to working with other G20 members to make continued progress on these and other issues in the G20 agenda and deliver positive outcomes for the Hangzhou Summit across a number of areas, including phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by a date certain; continuing discussions and cooperation on climate and energy efficiency, such as improving emissions performance of heavy-duty vehicles and steps to reduce methane emissions; conducting cooperation on epidemic prevention, detection, and response, based on the World Health Organization Joint External Evaluation tool, and combating antimicrobial resistance. Both sides encourage all G20 members to fully implement commitments made at previous G20 Summits.”
There is also the “Addis Ababa Action Agenda”, a bizarrely-named initiative that includes quadruple alliteration, and is an agreement relative to common Sustainable Development goals and initiatives (Wikipedia, 2022e).
One has taken the time and effort to list all of these instances of cooperation and alliances between China and the United States of America so as to drive the following point- just because two powers are often depicted as enemies, not only does not make it so, but there could be, and often are, a huge amount of trade, deals and common goals and initiatives that the two could be undertaking. This is extremely important, and when considered alongside a plethora of instances of past Russian-Western European alliances, makes for a very clear Thesis- it is by no means unlikely, and certainly not impossible, for an alliance between the European Union, the United States and the Russian Federation, which would lead to the disastrous scenario of the Northern Megastate coming into being.
Putin’s “War on Terror” and the Tacit Anti-Islamic Western-Russian Alliance
Regardless of whether a Western-Russian Megastate comes into being, and regardless even of whether it is a question if or when the West and Russia reconcile geopolitically, Russia has already played a key role in the attack against Islam in the modern age. Let us not forget that it was Vladimir Putin who engineered what is quite possibly a false flag terrorist attack in Moscow to justify attacking Chechnya, just as a few years later the United States would do with the terrorist attacks of 9/11 which it used as a pretext to launch a series of invasions targeting Islamic-majority countries. The Moscow bombings and Putin’s response as Russia’s then Prime Minister and former head of Russia’s main secret service agency, the FSB, was key to his rise to Russia’s de-facto perpetual President, leading David Satter (National Review, 2016) for example to affirm the following, seemingly with a very large degree of certainty:
“I believe that Vladimir Putin came to power as the result of an act of terror committed against his own people. The evidence is overwhelming that the apartment-house bombings in 1999 in Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk, which provided a pretext for the second Chechen war and catapulted Putin into the presidency, were carried out by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). Yet, to this day, an indifferent world has made little attempt to grasp the significance of what was the greatest political provocation since the burning of the Reichstag.”
And it must be noted that Russia was an eager participant in the fraudulently named “War on Terror” led by the United States of America.
The war in Syria drove a wedge between this tacit Western-Russian Anti-Islamic alliance, however, as we saw with the case of China, this by no means prevents future, considerable economic and military alliances and cooperation.
“The East-West Orientation of Historical Empires…”, NATO and the Northern Megastate
There is a concept that nations and cultures spread across East West axes more easily than North South axes- this is due to temperature fluxes[vi] being harsher across North and South divides, which then means a certain people can more easily adapt and then occupy and colonize territories to their East and South more easily then North and South. Coastlines are, to a degree, a slight exception, but not completely, to this rule. There are of course obvious contingencies, nuances and exceptions, but it is a remarkable and fascinating observation. It is also noted that this trend is not verified to the same degree in modern States due to a series of factors, some being technological.
Turchin et al (2006) attempt to summarize this concept thusly:
“Our results indicate that the physical and biological environment has a detectable eff ect on the shapes of historic states and to a lesser extent on modern states. It appears that projection of military/political power is easier within the same ecological zone (biome). Th is, however, does not support “ecological determinism.” Although ecology is important, its infl uence on state expansion patterns is transmitted by social mechanisms which can either abate, or sometimes overturn these ecological eff ects. Despite the complexities of the human world, certain techniques and ideas from ecological sciences have proven to be fruitful in suggesting novel approaches to the study of social systems.”
One great example of this East-West Expansion Theory is the history of the Scythians, who tended to migrate West along the Eurasian Steppe, which gets greener and more lush as one moves West (The Believer, 2022[vii]).
Let us first look at NATO. Indeed, at first it does not seem to follow the East-West Empire trend as described by Turchin et al (2006).
While NATO does not follow the logic of the East-West[viii] tendency directly and immediately, it is certainly the start of the what would be the ultimate example of an East-West Empire- the Northern Megastate.
The post-Brexit European Union, the Russian Federation, and the USA as viewed on a map, demonstrates how the amalgamation of three Federal States alone already make up a very impressive base from which to build the Northern Megastate.
The distribution of Islamic majority countries simultaneously follows and transcends the East-West trend[ix].
However, it is notable that the areas that the Muslims conquered and both Arabized and Islamified tended to be along the latitude of the area from whence it originated, the Hijaz, as Egypt and the Maghreb stands at more or less the same latitude as the Hijaz. Areas that were Islamified but not never fully Arabized, the most important examples being Turkey and Persia, which both either stand at slightly higher latitudes or tend to have mountainous regions, which also severely affects mean temperatures.
We must notice also that the areas which were, even if temporarily, conquered and dominated by Muslims in Europe, mostly Andalus and Sicily, sit at a latitude not too far off previously conquered lands, while further incursions, such as those made by the Moors into France for example, or into Central Europe by the Turks, ended in immediate embarrassing defeats and ended up being pushed back somewhat easily.
The advent of modern technology somewhat offsets the real effects of temperature fluxes as it allows for air conditioning, farming greenhouses and the like. Regardless, the scenario of the Northern Megastate feeds from the West-East axis principle insofar as the verifiable tendency of empires of the past to spread more so along longitude than latitude makes it so that both the populations and political elites of the countries that would be the core of the Northern Megastate, the United States, the European Union and the Russian Federation, are still more alike ethnically, culturally, etc. because of this trend, making the formation of the Megastate more likely, though its potential formation would not of course depend on this dynamic alone.
The Islamic Alliance, Sectarianism, the Persian Wedge and the Russian Loose End
If the Islamic World is to stand any chance at all to free itself from the constant wars, civil wars, and “foreign” invasions (i.e., invasions undertaken by non-Islamic majority countries) sectarianism must be repressed internally to a degree that it renders the Islamic World, the Ummah, not only receptive to the idea of a broad inter-Islamic alliance, but perhaps even demand it.
From the geopolitical standpoint, it would be anywhere between difficult, impractical or perhaps even impossible for an Islamic alliance to come into being without a massive, structural, methodical, relentless and successful campaign to reduce sectarianism in all its shapes and forms. This will be central to the eventual success or failure of any Islamic alliance.
Iran geopolitically splits what would otherwise be a continuous sequence of Sunni Muslim-majority countries. It serves as a wedge between the Western Sunni Muslim world, in light blue, and the Eastern Sunni Muslim world, in light green. Iran in in dark green surrounded by a black line to represent tensions with its neighbours and the existing geopolitical divide. Source: Author’s own map, adapted from representaion of Islamic majority countries.
As I myself put it, attempting to describe the importance, justification and strategic importance of fighting sectarianism (Silva Jordão, 2020):
“Sectarian divides within Islam are socially destructive, politically costly, and in the worst cases, result in unimaginable tragedy- they are certainly one of the main elements holding the Ummah back and are one of the favourite weapons that the enemies of Islam love to use against us. Beyond the well-known historical and political axioms that run through Islamic sectarianism, we can find psychological traumas and ideological myths that must be diagnosed, and in some cases, quasitherapeutically treated and seriously questioned…”
Let us also remember that intra-Islamic sectarianism was a key component in the civil war in Iraq after the 2003 US led invasion, though obviously the main factor was the criminal and fraudulent invasion itself, and that it also played a key part in the recent partial destruction of Syria and Yemen, while also being perhaps the most virulent component of ISI’s ideology, i.e., a pathological and genocidal hatred for Shia Muslims.
As Muslims, we are faced with a very simple choice. We will either destroy sectarianism, or sectarianism, directly or indirectly, will destroy us. The conclusion is obvious: either we wage an internal, ubiquitous war on sectarianism within the whole of the Islamic world, or the whole of the world, be it NATO or the Northern Megastate.
Interestingly, the division between Russia and the West also carries parallels to the ethnic, linguistic and sectarian Arab-Persian and Sunni-Shia divide that drives a wedge in between any future Islamic alliance. In the case of the North, the divisions between Russia and the West are linguistic not only insofar as Russian is its own language, but also uses a slightly different alphabet (Cyrillic), while also having its own Christian denomination, the Russian Orthodox Church, also known as the Moscow Patriarchate. It is also interesting to note that Moscow itself is sometimes referred to within this context as the Third Rome, the first Rome being Rome and the Second Rome being Constantinople. Upon the taking of Constantinople (now called Istanbul) by the Muslims, a considerable part of the contingent that made up the clergy of the Byzantine Empire went on to be based in Greece and later, in Russia and Moscow specifically. This also means that Russia, in its Christian, Russian Orthodox form, can very much be seen as the heir to Byzantium, sometimes referred to as the Byzantine Empire.
I would propose that any commentator that may be tempted into thinking that the divide between the Catholic and (Russian) Orthodox Church has no geopolitical relevance to consider that, as of December of 2022, (the precise time in which this paper was written, the President of Ukraine Vlodomir Zelensky was making credible moves to make it illegal for the Russian Orthodox Church, as well as any such “Russian affiliated churches” to operate within Ukrainian territory. Zelensky himself claiming, as reported by Reuters (2022):
“We have to create conditions where no actors dependent on the aggressor state (Russia) will have an opportunity to manipulate Ukrainians and weaken Ukraine from within,” Zelensky said in his nightly address to the nation on Thursday.” We will never allow anyone to build an empire inside the Ukrainian soul.”
Regardless, geopolitically, Russia is a sort of “loose end” that the West would do well to respect and lure back. If and when it unites with the Western World, it will be pivotal to the way in which the Western Empire evolves.
Whether NATO or Northern Megastate? A Sword of Damocles Above us Always:
Whether the possibility of a Northern Megastate becomes a reality, or not, a paradoxical beta-version of the Northern Megastate not only already exists, but has already been used to undertake a series of grievous attacks on the Global South and the Islamic world in particular- NATO. The paradox here is obvious- NATO was set-up as a political and military alliance between Western Europe and the United States of America to counter the Soviet Union. However insofar as the Soviet Union and then the Russian Federation goes, NATO has acted mainly as a counter-Russian deterrent, however, perhaps the most concrete actions that it has taken is simply to expand Westwards beyond what it had previously (allegedly) agreed to with the Soviet Union. However, NATO did take a key part in the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the successful destruction of the Libyan State along with a failed attempt to do the same in Syria. These four are the most grievous instances of military invasions led by or partaken in by NATO, but the list of actual military interventions is extensive, and the only recognizable pattern is the following- NATO only attacks weaker, non-nuclear States, and the majority of them are in the so-called global South.
From NATO to GUTO– Visions of a Global Ummah Treaty Organization
Ethics aside, from a merely geopolitical standpoint the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been as astounding success. It, for the most part, achieved its main objectives, which were to prevent intra-European wars between member States and to serve as a counter-balancing force to the Soviet Union.
One has obviously used the term GUTO in jest- it would be anywhere between demeaning and pathetic to copy NATO’s name in any other context than playful provocation. I, for example, am keen on the name “Grand Islamic Alliance”, or simply GIA. And this GIA would indeed have roughly the same objectives as NATO had upon its inception, not because copying NATO is correct in and of itself nor much less because it is an example we should seek to aspire to as such, but because it is simply the rational, pragmatic and geopolitically expedient thing to do which completely fits the needs, objectives and challenges of the Islamic World today.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has rekindled Russophobia in the West and further driven NATO and the Western Bloc away from Russia at large, not only politically and militarily but also culturally. However, it seems very possible that sooner or later, Russia will reunite with the so-called West, in great part because of the considerable and perhaps justified fear of China’s geopolitical rise, and if and when it does, “the West” as a political and geopolitical construct will be of limited analytical use and will no longer essentially exist, and in its stead, we will see the coming into being of The Northern Megastate, a name I have coined to denominate any eventual political and military bloc which unites the Russian Federation with the European Union and the United States of America around common objectives and initiatives. If this scenario takes place, not only will the joint power of these Federations be fearsome, it will come about with the conscious intent of subjugating the Global South and preserving Western hegemony. However, if it does take place, paradoxically, the Northern Megastate which will replace “The West” as the dominant political force in the world, thus replacing the West-East divide of old by a newly formed, rigid and sincerely frightening divide between North and South.
The formation of the European Union is a key element in the West’s response to the rise of Southern countries, and is also a key element that paves the way for the possibility of the Northern Megastate. While Brexit can be interpreted as anywhere between a geopolitical drawback or even perhaps a geopolitical disaster for the West, in the longer term, this will probably be no more than a mishap, just as the war in Ukraine in no way renders future Russian-Western alliances impossible.
Ultimately, the West’s obsession with maintaining global hegemony will make it very much open to such scenarios, whilst also putting any unaligned emerging power at serious geopolitical risk. The Islamic World mostly occupies a Southern region directly underneath the EU and Russia, and this scenario would probably not only make it so that recent invasions of Islamic countries continue, but even intensify.
Lastly, this paper intends to be a dire warning to Islamic majority countries that they must either form a wide spanning Islamic alliance that both prevents intra-Islamic wars and deters foreign invasions, much like NATO did across the North Atlantic, or face immense and growing geopolitical risks in the short to medium term.
João Silva Jordão is a Muslim convert, political activist who holds a PhD in urbanism from the Lisbon School of Architecture, University of Lisbon. He has a particular interest in trying to analyse modern problems using the timeless paradigm that is Islam. The book form which this excerpt is taken, will be available from early 2026 published by Islamic Human Rights Commission.
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[i] Dugin is a conservative philosopher, activist and strategist, whose modern day revivavl of the idea of Eurasianism is deeply influential in Russian governmental circles today.
[ii] A comparison between the EU’s EEZ and the rest of the world’s EEZ, with United Kingdom still in the EU. Source: Energy Industry Review (2020) https://energyindustryreview.com/analysis/exclusive-economic-zone-and-the-energy-game-waves-in-the-mediterranean/
[iii] See The European Union’s Economic Exclusive Zone, i.e., their maritime jurisdiction, with the United Kingdom still in the EU. Source: Wikipedia Commons, (2022) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EU_EEZ.svg
[iv] Total potential enlargement of the European Union as its hypothetical EEZ. Source: Wikipedia (2022c) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:European_Union_maximum_enlargement_(with_EEZ).PNG
[v] The USA’s Top Five Trading Partners in 2022 (up to September). Source: United State Census Bureau (2022) https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top2209yr.html
[vi] “East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States” Turchin et al, 2006. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biome#/media/File:Vegetation.png
[vii] The Believer (2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Steppe#/media/File:Eurasian_steppe_belt.jpg
[viii] Wikipedia, “NATO”, 2022 https://ia.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:North_Atlantic_Treaty_Organization_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg
[ix] “Islam by Country” (2022b) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country#/media/File:Islam_percent_population_in_each_nation_World_Map_Muslim_data_by_Pew_Research.svg